Election Triumph in El Salvador

With the March 1997 municipal and legislative elections, the Salvadoran transitional process has survived yet another test. Although the definitive results of the vote have not yet been released, there is no doubt that the principle of alternating state power -an essential prerequisite of a democratic order- is taking root in El Salvador. In the 1980's, it was the Christian Democratic Party which hegemonized state power; starting in 1989 that position was occupied by ARENA; and now, aside from the executive branch, which continues in the hands of ARENA, it appears that it has become the FMLN's turn.

During these two decades, the elections have, for better or for worse, been the favorite instrument for channeling struggles for access to power. All political actors have -at least at the level of discourse- committed themselves to respect the rules demanded by electoral competition, and all have said they are willing to accept its results.

Tendencies on March 16 indicate a municipal prevalence of the FMLN, as well as a shared majority with ARENA in the legislature, which means a drastic modification of the power relations which prevailed to date. Just as the losing parties were forced to behave in 1989 and 1994, when ARENA became the big winner, so now is this party obliged to respect the results of elections which have given the victory to the left, as well as a significant share of power to the center-left and center-right opposition. The viability of the nation's democratic system largely depends on the degree of responsibility with which ARENA accepts its electoral defeat, since respect for the rules which made this outcome possible is what must characterize anyone who claims to be committed to building democracy.

Electoral Results Favor the FMLN

According to the figures, while ARENA could win 29 deputies in the Legislative Assembly, the FMLN could win 28, the PCN 11, the PDC 9, the CD and PRSC two each, and the MU one. In the municipal vote, unofficial estimates show that ARENA won 118 municipalities, the FMLN 54, the PDC 14 and the PCN 13. The rest were won by the MU, PLD and PRSC. Meanwhile, ARENA's executive committee admitted that it had won fewer legislators and mayors than in the past, blaming the loss on an "excess of confidence" among its supporters who didn't bother to vote.

The president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Luis Cardenal, said on March 17 that the Salvadoran business sector felt "moderate" concern about the results of the legislative and municipal elections. Cardenal said that a climate of uncertainty could occur if there are changes in existing legislature which generate enough insecurity and mistrust to scare off national and foreign investment. He added that concerns could continue until the FMLN fulfilled "in practice" its promise to reach consensus with all sectors of Salvadoran society.

By the same token, the general manager of Colgate-Palmolive and one of the principal members of the American Chamber of Commerce, Miguel Angel Ramirez, said that the FMLN's gains in the elections are "a clear indication that the government's policies have generated must discontent among the most disadvantaged sectors of the population. Additionally, members of the middle and lower middle classes also do not identify with the government's social and economic policies."

The coalition made up of the Democratic Party (PD) and the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) proclaimed itself the nation's third political force as a result of the March 16

legislative and municipal elections. Identifying themselves as the "Great Democratic Center," the PD and PDC said they were now in third place. In a joint press release, the groups said they had won 25 municipal governments and 11 legislative deputies, with two more seats in dispute.

Evaluation of the Electoral Results

One of the clearest results of the past elections has been a break with ARENA's traditional hegemony of the past several years. As the pre-electoral voter surveys suggested, the results of the elections for legislative deputies and mayors definitely show increased participation for the FMLN. In addition, it is clear that the Salvadoran political arena is polarized between ARENA and the FMLN. Although the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has yet to release the definitive results, preliminary figures allow us to gather an idea of the outcome. At least three key aspects stand out: the increased number of FMLN legislative deputies, a drop in the number of ARENA deputies and an increase in the number of municipalities controlled by the left, especially in departmental seats and the San Salvador Metropolitan Area.

A first aspect to notice is that the FMLN has apparently won a greater number of legislative deputies in these elections (at least 28 compared with 21 in 1994), although this was not precisely because its level of support increased proportionately. In the 1994 elections for deputies, the FMLN received a total of 287,811 votes, while in 1997, with 58.7% of the votes counted, its vote count is currently 230,542. Considering that each urn contained an average of 174.6 votes for the FMLN, the remaining 646,172 votes uncounted would leave 34.27% (221,443) to the FMLN. Thus, the total of votes for the FMLN would be 451,985, a 57% increase over 1994.

Besides these results, a review of the available data shows that underlying this voter behavior is not a simple change in preferences. Thus, the higher number of FMLN deputies in the upcoming legislature has more to do with a drop in the number of votes, a drop in ARENA votes, and the relative stability of the FMLN voter base.

According to estimates based on the votes counted so far, and if current trends continue, ARENA will win fewer deputies (down from 39 in 1994 to just over 28 in 1997), which will practically even the balance between ARENA and the FMLN. ARENA has suffered a serious drop in support. At the departmental level, the most notable aspect of municipal elections has been the increase of municipal governments in the hands of the FMLN, particularly the victories in the nation's capital and the majority of departmental seats.

Abstentionism has unquestionably absorbed the majority of registered voters. The high level of abstentionism, together with the polarization of the political spectrum, raise serious doubts about the potential of the political party system, since it does not appear to be motivating civil society to cast votes. On the one hand, ARENA appears to have lost the necessary hegemony to impose its political programs, chiefly because it has no answer to the problem of social justice; on the other hand, the FMLN has shown that it still lacks a strong enough image to increase significantly its voter base and hegemonize power enough to impose its program on society.

The results of the elections suggest that the current

directions of economic and social policies are still incapable of satisfying the expectations of the majority of the people, and that the political party system is still losing credibility with voters.

The Challenges Facing the New Mayor of San Salvador

The Salvadoran capital today is a chaotic city, in which disproportionate urban growth, transit disorder, lack of safety and pollution are the order of the day. The problem of transportation is undoubtedly one of the most pressing in the capital city, especially for those who use public transit daily. The fares are constantly rising, and the routes are poorly distributed so that many passengers have a difficult time reaching their destinations.

The growing crime rate and the lack of effective measures to counteract it makes the use of public transportation even more torturous and dangerous. And besides the daily abuse they suffer from bus drivers and fare collectors, people are permanently exposed to all types of crimes.

Merely providing a solution to this problem would confer highly-deserved recognition on the next mayor, but challenges of the same or greater magnitude could also not be postponed: measures to stop pollution, confronting water shortages, finding the best solution to waste disposal, resolving the problem of street vendors and controlling disproportionate urban growth.

The municipal platform put forth by the new mayor, Hector Silva (MU-FMLN-CD Coaltion) is much simpler than the defeated ARENA candidate, Mario Valiente's. The coalition platform briefly enumerates some city goals which Silva calls "the city in a positive light." The platform subsequently outlines some of the steps necessary to achieve this positive city, one that must be:

• "safe, with lighting, patrols, programs for youth and cultural programs which help reduce violence;
  
• economically prosperous, with recovery of the urban center, solutions to the traffic problem, decentralization of municipal government and programs undertaken jointly with the business sector;
  
• healthy, by keeping the hills surrounding the city green, transforming waste into a source of income through recycling and offering basic services to poor neighborhoods; and
  
• pleasant, which allows for well-deserved leisure, with recreational parks and areas, with massive art and sports programs."

The platform also proposes a new form of governing characterized by "participation, leadership, and transparent, sustainable and supportive administration." All these proposals could be eye-catching and viable, but Silva's platform does not resolve uncertainty about how he would confront the nation's executive branch if he were mayor. He may have good intentions, but few real chances of carrying them out.

No matter how you look at it, ARENA has been the big loser. Not only has it lost bastions of power it considered inalienable, but it was also abruptly forced to acknowledge the other side of the democratic game: defeat. The FMLN has also made important gains: recognition as a first-rate political force, and an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to the nation's most disadvantaged sectors.